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<p class=MsoPlainText><b><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-weight:bold'>Energy Crises and Climate Change: how
do we cope?<o:p></o:p></span></font></b></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>The Schumacher Institute is holding an informal
conversation day on April 27th, 10.00 am - 4.00 pm (with the normal free lunch)
at the CREATE Environment Centre, <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Bristol</st1:City></st1:place>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>There is much uncertainty about energy supplies and
climate change as we try to picture the future. Thousands of scientists,
industry specialists, policy makers and other experts are working to understand
and predict what may unfold. However, we can only improve our understanding, we
will never be certain. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>The idea for the day is to appreciate the structure,
timings and likelihoods of possible outcomes, to understand the complexity of
change and to develop methodology and principles to work with human-nature
systems in this energy / climate context. For example, how should we think about
our food production and distribution systems in somewhere like the South West
of England? We cannot assume a climate like the past few decades and cheap oil
for fertilisers and transport are unlikely to return, but what are the
principles for adapting to these uncertain changes and what are their limits
and consequences.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>The day will start with presentations including the
work done by Pru Foster from <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Bristol</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType
w:st="on">University</st1:PlaceType> on the catastrophic impact of climate
change on frog species in <st1:place w:st="on">Central America</st1:place>
– an example of the delicate balance that prevails in the web of life. David
Hirst will present ‘Gaian Engineering’ to stimulate discussion on
systems thinking for climate change.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>We will also consider the issues using the 12-node
world modelling approach developed by <st1:PersonName w:st="on">Tony Hodgson</st1:PersonName>
as a practical exercise to track consequences and develop methodology.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>If you would like to present ideas or results of any
studies please let us know.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>There is no charge for the day but we always welcome
donations towards the work of the Institute.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>If you wish to come then please send an email to
Yolanda at <a href="mailto:admin@schumacher.org.uk"
title="mailto:admin@schumacher.org.uk">admin@schumacher.org.uk</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>Best wishes<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoPlainText><font size=2 face="Courier New"><span lang=EN-GB
style='font-size:10.0pt'>Ian Roderick<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 face=Arial><span lang=EN-GB style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
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